【課文】
First listen and then answer the following question.
聽(tīng)錄音，然后回答以下問(wèn)題。
Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 120.2, then 12.03...
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
【New words and expressions 生詞和短語(yǔ)】
forecast n. 預(yù)報(bào)
speculative adj. 推測(cè)的
blizzard n. 暴風(fēng)雪
deteriorate v. 變壞
multiply v. 增加
cascade v. 瀑布似地落下
turbulent adj. 狂暴的
dust devil 小塵暴，塵旋風(fēng)
squall n. 暴風(fēng)
eddy n. 旋渦
grid n. 坐標(biāo)方格
sensor n. 傳感器
humidity n. 溫度
meteorologist n. 氣象學(xué)家
Princeton n. 普林斯頓(美國(guó)城市名)
New Jersey n. 新澤西(美國(guó)州名)
fluctuation n. 起伏，波動(dòng)
deviation n. 偏差
【課文注釋】
1.beyond two or three days，超過(guò)兩三天。
beyond這個(gè)介詞有很多用法：
①在或向(某物)的遠(yuǎn)處。
例句：The road continues beyond the village up into the hills.
這條路綿延不斷越過(guò)村子直入山中。
②遲于或超過(guò)(某一時(shí)間)。
例句：It won't go on beyond midnight.
這不會(huì)持續(xù)到午夜以后。
③越出(某事物)范圍;超越。
例句：The bicycle is beyond repairis.=The bicycle is too badly damaged to repair.
這輛自行車(chē)已不能修理了。
④除(某事物)以外;除了。
例句：He's got nothing beyond his state pension.
除了國(guó)家發(fā)的養(yǎng)老金，他一無(wú)所有。
2.deteriorate 變壞，惡化。
If something deteriorates, it becomes worse in some way.和improve是反義詞。
例句：Food is apt to deteriorate in summer.
食物在夏天容易變質(zhì)。
例句：The discussion deteriorated into a bitter quarrel.
這場(chǎng)討論演變成了激烈的爭(zhēng)吵。
3.multiply乘;增多，增加;繁殖。
①表示兩數(shù)相乘。
例句：2 and 3 multiply to make 6.
2和3相乘得6。
②增多，增加。
例句：Our problems have multiplied since last year.
自去年以來(lái)我們的問(wèn)題增多了。
這篇文章中“errors and uncertainties multiply”的multiply就是增加、增多的意思。
③繁殖，增殖。
例句：It is possible to multiply bacteria and other living organisms in the laboratory.
在實(shí)驗(yàn)室能夠繁殖細(xì)菌和其他生物。
4.cascade，瀑布
①作名詞，瀑布;如瀑布般的。
例句：The water formed a cascade down the mountain.
水沿山瀉下，形成一條瀑布。
②in cascades/cascades of，像瀑布一樣。
例句：Climbing plants with their bright flowers hung in cascades over the garden wall.
開(kāi)出鮮艷花朵的爬藤植物瀑布般懸掛在花園墻上。
③作動(dòng)詞，如瀑布似的落下。
例句：Her golden hair cascaded down her back.
她的金發(fā)像瀑布似的披在背后。
5.a chain of，一系列，一連串。
例句：It is as if a single unimportant event set up a chain of reactions.
仿佛一件小事引起了一連串連鎖反應(yīng)似的。
例句：The enemy tank car caught fire and set off a chain of explosions.
敵人的油車(chē)著了火，引起了一連串的爆炸。
6.of the order of，大約。
7.all the way to，一直，完全。
例句：The two runners contested the race closely it was nip and tuck all the way.
那兩個(gè)賽跑選手競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈，在賽程中一直不相上下。
例句：I'll back you up all the way.
我完全支持你。
【參考譯文】
世界上好的兩三天以上的天氣預(yù)報(bào)具有很強(qiáng)的猜測(cè)性，如果超過(guò)六七天，天氣預(yù)報(bào)就沒(méi)有了任何價(jià)值。
原因是蝴蝶效應(yīng)。對(duì)于小片的惡劣天氣 -- 對(duì)一個(gè)全球性的氣象預(yù)報(bào)員來(lái)說(shuō)，“小”可以意味著雷暴雨和暴風(fēng)雪 -- 任何預(yù)測(cè)的質(zhì)量會(huì)很快下降。錯(cuò)誤和不可靠性上升，接踵而來(lái)的是一系列湍流的徵狀，從小塵暴和暴風(fēng)發(fā)展到只有衛(wèi)星上可以看到的席卷整塊大陸的旋渦。
現(xiàn)代氣象模型以一個(gè)坐標(biāo)圖來(lái)顯示，圖中每個(gè)點(diǎn)大約是間隔60英里。既使是這樣，有些開(kāi)始時(shí)的資料也不得不依靠推測(cè)，因?yàn)榈孛婀ぷ髡竞托l(wèi)星不可能看到地球上的 每一個(gè)地方。假設(shè)地球上可以布滿傳感器，每個(gè)相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的間隔從地面一直排列到大氣層的頂端。再假定每個(gè)傳感器都極極端準(zhǔn)確地讀出了溫度、氣 壓、溫度和氣象學(xué)家需要的任何其他數(shù)據(jù)。在正午時(shí)分，一個(gè)功能巨大的計(jì)算機(jī)搜集了所有的資料，并算出在每一個(gè)點(diǎn)上12：01、12：02、12：03時(shí)可 能出現(xiàn)的情況。
計(jì)算機(jī)無(wú)法推斷出1個(gè)月以后的某一天，新澤西州的普林斯頓究竟是晴天還是雨天。正午時(shí)分，傳感器之間的距離會(huì)掩蓋計(jì)算機(jī)無(wú) 法知道的波動(dòng)、任何偏平均值的變化。到12：01時(shí)，那些波動(dòng)就已經(jīng)會(huì)在1英尺遠(yuǎn)的地方造成偏差。很快這種偏差會(huì)增加到尺10英的范圍，如此等等，一直到 全球的范圍。
First listen and then answer the following question.
聽(tīng)錄音，然后回答以下問(wèn)題。
Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 120.2, then 12.03...
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
【New words and expressions 生詞和短語(yǔ)】
forecast n. 預(yù)報(bào)
speculative adj. 推測(cè)的
blizzard n. 暴風(fēng)雪
deteriorate v. 變壞
multiply v. 增加
cascade v. 瀑布似地落下
turbulent adj. 狂暴的
dust devil 小塵暴，塵旋風(fēng)
squall n. 暴風(fēng)
eddy n. 旋渦
grid n. 坐標(biāo)方格
sensor n. 傳感器
humidity n. 溫度
meteorologist n. 氣象學(xué)家
Princeton n. 普林斯頓(美國(guó)城市名)
New Jersey n. 新澤西(美國(guó)州名)
fluctuation n. 起伏，波動(dòng)
deviation n. 偏差
【課文注釋】
1.beyond two or three days，超過(guò)兩三天。
beyond這個(gè)介詞有很多用法：
①在或向(某物)的遠(yuǎn)處。
例句：The road continues beyond the village up into the hills.
這條路綿延不斷越過(guò)村子直入山中。
②遲于或超過(guò)(某一時(shí)間)。
例句：It won't go on beyond midnight.
這不會(huì)持續(xù)到午夜以后。
③越出(某事物)范圍;超越。
例句：The bicycle is beyond repairis.=The bicycle is too badly damaged to repair.
這輛自行車(chē)已不能修理了。
④除(某事物)以外;除了。
例句：He's got nothing beyond his state pension.
除了國(guó)家發(fā)的養(yǎng)老金，他一無(wú)所有。
2.deteriorate 變壞，惡化。
If something deteriorates, it becomes worse in some way.和improve是反義詞。
例句：Food is apt to deteriorate in summer.
食物在夏天容易變質(zhì)。
例句：The discussion deteriorated into a bitter quarrel.
這場(chǎng)討論演變成了激烈的爭(zhēng)吵。
3.multiply乘;增多，增加;繁殖。
①表示兩數(shù)相乘。
例句：2 and 3 multiply to make 6.
2和3相乘得6。
②增多，增加。
例句：Our problems have multiplied since last year.
自去年以來(lái)我們的問(wèn)題增多了。
這篇文章中“errors and uncertainties multiply”的multiply就是增加、增多的意思。
③繁殖，增殖。
例句：It is possible to multiply bacteria and other living organisms in the laboratory.
在實(shí)驗(yàn)室能夠繁殖細(xì)菌和其他生物。
4.cascade，瀑布
①作名詞，瀑布;如瀑布般的。
例句：The water formed a cascade down the mountain.
水沿山瀉下，形成一條瀑布。
②in cascades/cascades of，像瀑布一樣。
例句：Climbing plants with their bright flowers hung in cascades over the garden wall.
開(kāi)出鮮艷花朵的爬藤植物瀑布般懸掛在花園墻上。
③作動(dòng)詞，如瀑布似的落下。
例句：Her golden hair cascaded down her back.
她的金發(fā)像瀑布似的披在背后。
5.a chain of，一系列，一連串。
例句：It is as if a single unimportant event set up a chain of reactions.
仿佛一件小事引起了一連串連鎖反應(yīng)似的。
例句：The enemy tank car caught fire and set off a chain of explosions.
敵人的油車(chē)著了火，引起了一連串的爆炸。
6.of the order of，大約。
7.all the way to，一直，完全。
例句：The two runners contested the race closely it was nip and tuck all the way.
那兩個(gè)賽跑選手競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈，在賽程中一直不相上下。
例句：I'll back you up all the way.
我完全支持你。
【參考譯文】
世界上好的兩三天以上的天氣預(yù)報(bào)具有很強(qiáng)的猜測(cè)性，如果超過(guò)六七天，天氣預(yù)報(bào)就沒(méi)有了任何價(jià)值。
原因是蝴蝶效應(yīng)。對(duì)于小片的惡劣天氣 -- 對(duì)一個(gè)全球性的氣象預(yù)報(bào)員來(lái)說(shuō)，“小”可以意味著雷暴雨和暴風(fēng)雪 -- 任何預(yù)測(cè)的質(zhì)量會(huì)很快下降。錯(cuò)誤和不可靠性上升，接踵而來(lái)的是一系列湍流的徵狀，從小塵暴和暴風(fēng)發(fā)展到只有衛(wèi)星上可以看到的席卷整塊大陸的旋渦。
現(xiàn)代氣象模型以一個(gè)坐標(biāo)圖來(lái)顯示，圖中每個(gè)點(diǎn)大約是間隔60英里。既使是這樣，有些開(kāi)始時(shí)的資料也不得不依靠推測(cè)，因?yàn)榈孛婀ぷ髡竞托l(wèi)星不可能看到地球上的 每一個(gè)地方。假設(shè)地球上可以布滿傳感器，每個(gè)相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的間隔從地面一直排列到大氣層的頂端。再假定每個(gè)傳感器都極極端準(zhǔn)確地讀出了溫度、氣 壓、溫度和氣象學(xué)家需要的任何其他數(shù)據(jù)。在正午時(shí)分，一個(gè)功能巨大的計(jì)算機(jī)搜集了所有的資料，并算出在每一個(gè)點(diǎn)上12：01、12：02、12：03時(shí)可 能出現(xiàn)的情況。
計(jì)算機(jī)無(wú)法推斷出1個(gè)月以后的某一天，新澤西州的普林斯頓究竟是晴天還是雨天。正午時(shí)分，傳感器之間的距離會(huì)掩蓋計(jì)算機(jī)無(wú) 法知道的波動(dòng)、任何偏平均值的變化。到12：01時(shí)，那些波動(dòng)就已經(jīng)會(huì)在1英尺遠(yuǎn)的地方造成偏差。很快這種偏差會(huì)增加到尺10英的范圍，如此等等，一直到 全球的范圍。