lculating market returns is all in the measuring
市場收益的測算
The stock market goes up and down. Suppose its level alternates each year between 50 and 100, with no upward or downward trend. What is the capital return on the market?
股市有漲也有跌。假設(shè)每年的股價(jià)不是50就是100，沒有上漲或下跌趨勢。那么股市的資本回報(bào)率會有多大？
Common sense suggests the answer is zero. But is that common sense right? In the good years you obtain a return of 100 per cent. In the bad, the yield is minus 50 per cent. The average return is therefore 25 per cent. There is logic to that. If you invested the same amount every year, and sold at the end of a year, you would indeed make – on average – a very attractive return of 25 per cent a year.
根據(jù)常識，答案應(yīng)該是零。但這一常識正確嗎？在景氣年份，你可以獲得100%的回報(bào)率；在不景氣年份，回報(bào)率則是負(fù)50%。因此平均收益率為25%。這是符合邏輯的。如果你每年都拿同樣多的錢買股票，并在年末賣掉，那么平均算下來，實(shí)際上你每年會獲得25%的回報(bào)率，這很有吸引力。
市場收益的測算
The stock market goes up and down. Suppose its level alternates each year between 50 and 100, with no upward or downward trend. What is the capital return on the market?
股市有漲也有跌。假設(shè)每年的股價(jià)不是50就是100，沒有上漲或下跌趨勢。那么股市的資本回報(bào)率會有多大？
Common sense suggests the answer is zero. But is that common sense right? In the good years you obtain a return of 100 per cent. In the bad, the yield is minus 50 per cent. The average return is therefore 25 per cent. There is logic to that. If you invested the same amount every year, and sold at the end of a year, you would indeed make – on average – a very attractive return of 25 per cent a year.
根據(jù)常識，答案應(yīng)該是零。但這一常識正確嗎？在景氣年份，你可以獲得100%的回報(bào)率；在不景氣年份，回報(bào)率則是負(fù)50%。因此平均收益率為25%。這是符合邏輯的。如果你每年都拿同樣多的錢買股票，并在年末賣掉，那么平均算下來，實(shí)際上你每年會獲得25%的回報(bào)率，這很有吸引力。