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The Federal Reserve will not waver from its aggressive policy stance when one of its two bond-buying programs expires at year end, and it is prepared to do even more to get Americans back to work, two Fed officials said on Tuesday.
The U.S. central bank, which last week launched a potentially massive policy-easing effort with no set end date, will closely watch the ailing labor market for meaningful signs of improvement, the Fed policymakers said.
In response to lackluster economic growth that has not been enough to drive the unemployment rate down from levels above 8 percent, the Fed headed deeper into uncharted policy territory with a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3.
William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, said the economy needed a "nudge in the right direction," while Charles Evans, head of the Chicago Fed, predicted the central bank will keep buying assets at its current $85 billion-per-month pace into the new year.
"If the economy is weaker, we'll do more" asset purchases, said Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a key barometer of the thinking inside the central bank. "If the economy is stronger and we see a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market sooner, we'll end up doing less."
Dudley, addressing the Morris County Chamber of Commerce in New Jersey, added: "If you're trying to get a car moving that is stuck in the mud, you don't stop pushing the moment the wheels start turning - you keep pushing until the car is rolling and is clearly free."
Last week the Fed said it plans to buy $40 billion every month in mortgage-backed securities until the labor market outlook improves substantially.
The purchases come on top of an existing stimulus program in which the central bank buys about $45 billion a month in long-term Treasuries while selling the same amount of short-term Treasuries. That program, dubbed Operation Twist and designed to drive down long-term borrowing rates such as mortgages, runs through the end of 2012.
Evans, who has long advocated such aggressive action by the Fed, said he would be surprised if there is enough evidence by year-end to halt Treasury purchases altogether.
"Under those conditions, I would expect we would continue with something like an $85 billion base of purchases ... that's a benchmark to start from," he told reporters after a speech in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The Fed in late 2008 slashed interest rates to near zero and has since bought $2.3 trillion in securities in an unprecedented drive to spur growth and revive the economy after the worst recession in decades. Yet the recovery, especially in jobs, has been slow, leading the central bank to say it expects to keep rates at rock bottom at least through mid 2015.
Wall Street economists have been trying to pinpoint exactly what conditions would constitute a "substantial" improvement in the outlook for the labor market, which the Fed last week suggested would halt the new money-printing program.
Addressing this question, Dudley said the Fed will watch all corners of the labor market, including payroll growth, the number of Americans who have given up the hunt for work, the employment-to-population-ratio and job-finding rates, as well as the broader measure of unemployment.
At year end, further purchases of Treasuries will depend on an assessment of costs and benefits and on labor improvement, said Dudley, who as head of the important New York regional Fed bank has a permanent vote on Fed policy.
Ultimately, the Fed is looking for a stronger recovery alongside stable prices, said Dudley. "When that finally materializes, I'll view it as consistent with the result we are trying to achieve, and not a reason to pull back our policies prematurely," he added.
INTERNAL POLICY RIFTS
Fed policymakers broadly agree that U.S. unemployment is much too high; most also agree that inflation, which has hovered near the Fed's 2 percent target, is well under control. But there continue to be deep rifts within the central bank over the best policy response.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, a forceful opponent of further easing, said he would have dissented last week if he had a vote on the bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.
"I would argue that it is less impactful right now because you have other things inhibiting businesses from making decisions on capex and employment," Fisher told CNBC. "I don't think this program will have much efficacy."
James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, expressed a similar sentiment. While he has been less skeptical than Fisher about the use of bond buys as a stimulus option, Bullard told Reuters he did not think the economic data sufficiently weak to warrant the latest round of monetary easing.
"I would have voted against it based on the timing. I didn't feel like we had a good enough case to make a major move at this juncture," said Bullard, who is not a voter this year on the Federal Open Market Committee.
"We should take a little bit more (of a) wait and see posture. I think that constellation of economic data doesn't really dictate the decision that we made."
Only one of the 12 Fed voting policymakers dissented against QE3, which came very close to a plan Evans has advocated for the past year: a vow to keep rates low until unemployment drops below 7 percent or inflation threatens to top 3 percent, and to buy bonds if progress on jobs is not fast enough.
"I am optimistic that we can achieve better outcomes through more monetary policy accommodation," Evans told a business breakfast sponsored by the Bank of Ann Arbor. "This is the time to act," he said, adding that asset purchases could begin to taper in 2014 if the labor market improves as he expects.
Evans cast the debate over monetary policy as one between optimists who believe further easing can deliver a stronger economy, and pessimists who say it will only spark inflation. Pessimists have warned for years about higher inflation, only to have their predictions fall short, he said.
Risks abound that could send the U.S. economy back into recession, he said, citing a potential global slowdown, spillover from Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the looming "fiscal cliff."
"We cannot be complacent and assume that the economy is not being damaged if no action is taken," Evans said.
相關中文資料
兩名美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會(FED,美聯(lián)儲)官員周二表示,當兩項購債計劃中的一項在年底到期後,美聯(lián)儲的積極政策立場不會動搖.
美聯(lián)儲決策者表示,美聯(lián)儲將密切關注疲弱的就業(yè)市場,尋找有意義的改善跡象.美聯(lián)儲上周宣布了一項潛在規(guī)模巨大的政策寬松計劃,而且沒有設定截止日期.
美國經(jīng)濟成長乏力,難以壓低目前在8%以上的失業(yè)率.為此,美聯(lián)儲推出了第三輪量化寬松(QE3),進一步深入前所未有的政策地帶.
紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行總裁杜德利表示,美國經(jīng)濟需要"在正確的方向上推一把".而美國芝加哥聯(lián)邦儲備銀行總裁埃文斯預測,美聯(lián)儲明年亦將保持目前每月買進850億美元資產(chǎn)的速度.
杜德利稱,"如果經(jīng)濟更加疲弱,我們將祭出更多"資產(chǎn)購買行動.杜德利是美聯(lián)儲主席伯南克的親密盟友,他的立場是反映美聯(lián)儲內(nèi)部想法的關鍵線索."如果經(jīng)濟成長較快增強且就業(yè)市場前景明顯改善,我們最終購買的資產(chǎn)就會較少."
杜德利在新澤西演講時表示,"如果你試圖使陷入泥淖里的汽車動起來,你不會在車輪剛開始轉動就不推了--你將一直推,直至汽車開動并完全脫離泥淖."
上周美聯(lián)儲稱,計劃每月購買400億美元抵押支持債券(MBS),直到就業(yè)前景明顯改善。
這一購買計劃是在現(xiàn)有的賣短買長刺激計劃的基礎上祭出的.在賣短買長計劃中,美聯(lián)儲每月購買大約450億美元的長期公債,同時賣出同等數(shù)量的短期公債,這一計劃被稱為扭轉操作,旨在拉低抵押貸款利率等長期借貸利率,將於2012年底到期.
埃文斯稱,如果到年底有足夠的證據(jù)顯示可以完全停止公債購買計劃,他將感到意外.埃文斯長期主張美聯(lián)儲應積極購買公債.
"在這些情況下,我預計將保持某些行動,比如850億美元的基本購買規(guī)模...這是一個起始標準,"他在密西根演講後對記者表示.
美聯(lián)儲上周表示,若就業(yè)市場前景"明顯"改善將會停止新的印鈔計畫.華爾街分析師試圖想確認何種情況才是所謂的"明顯"改善.
杜德利在回應這個問題時說,美聯(lián)儲將觀察就業(yè)市場的各個層面,包括就業(yè)成長、放棄求職的美國人數(shù)量、就業(yè)與人口之比、就職率、以及廣義的失業(yè)指標.
杜德利說年底時美聯(lián)儲是否更進一步買進美國公債,將視成本及效益、以及勞動市場的評估而定.杜德利是對美聯(lián)儲決策具有永久投票權的紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行的總裁.
他表示,最終美聯(lián)儲尋求經(jīng)濟復蘇增強同時物價穩(wěn)定."當這個目標最終實現(xiàn)時,我認為那就是達到了我們想要的結果,而不是貿(mào)然收回政策的理由."他說.
內(nèi)部政策歧見
美聯(lián)儲決策官員普遍同意美國失業(yè)率太高,大多數(shù)成員也同意通脹仍穩(wěn)穩(wěn)受控.不過對於美聯(lián)儲該以何種政策來因應才是上策,決策者內(nèi)部意見分歧.
達拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行總裁費希爾說,如果他今年在美國聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)有投票權,上周的美聯(lián)儲會議他會投下反對票.費希爾是堅決反對更加放寬政策的那一派.
"我將認為目前采取的寬松行動不太奏效,因有其他事情正妨礙企業(yè)作出資本支出和雇聘方面的決策,"費希爾向美國國家廣播公司商業(yè)新聞臺(CNBC)表示."我不認為該計劃會取得很大成效."
圣路易斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行總裁布拉德表達了類似的觀點.盡管布拉德對動用購債舉措作為刺激選項的質疑一直沒有費希爾那麼嚴重,他向路透表示,經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)并未十分疲弱到有必要祭出最新一輪量化寬松政策的程度.
"我會因為行動時機而投票反對.我感覺,我們沒有足夠理由在目前情況下作出重大舉措,"布拉德說,他今年不是美國聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的投票委員.
"我們本應采取略微等待觀望的態(tài)度.我認為,經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)并未主導我們作出的決定."
美聯(lián)儲12位投票委員中,僅有一人對QE3持有異議,這非常接近於去年埃文斯提出的計劃:誓言維持低利率,直到失業(yè)率降至7%以下或通脹率行將突破3%,若就業(yè)形勢改善不夠快則買入公債.
"我對聯(lián)儲通過更多寬松貨幣政策能實現(xiàn)更好的結果感到樂觀,"埃文斯在Bank of Ann Arbor主辦的商界早餐會上表示,"目前是采取行動的良機",他并稱若就業(yè)市場一如他預期般改善,2014年資產(chǎn)購買行動可開始逐漸減少.
埃文斯的貨幣政策立場較為中性,樂觀者相信進一步放松政策能促使美國經(jīng)濟更為強勁,悲觀者認為此舉只會引發(fā)通貨膨脹.他說,悲觀者多年來一直對通脹升高發(fā)出警告,但他們的預言落空.
他說,諸多風險恐將拖累美國經(jīng)濟重新陷入衰退,包括全球經(jīng)濟可能放緩,歐洲主權債務危機蔓延和美國正瀕臨"財政懸崖"等.
埃文斯表示,"我們不能自滿并假設即便不采取行動,經(jīng)濟也不會受創(chuàng)."